The 10 Hottest US Real Estate Markets Poised for a Sales Surge in 2024
After two sluggish years marked by sky-high mortgage rates and scarce inventory, the US housing market is on the cusp of a dramatic turnaround. According to a new forecast from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), 2024 is shaping up to be a banner year for home sales, with a projected 13% surge in existing home transactions and a stunning 19% jump in new construction.
This anticipated rebound is largely credited to falling mortgage rates. After peaking near 7.8% in late 2023, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is expected to moderate to an average of 6.3% in 2024, according to NAR projections. This easing of borrowing costs is projected to lure millions of pent-up buyers back to the market, while also unlocking inventory from existing homeowners who have been reluctant to sell due to the “rate lock-in” effect.
But not all markets are poised to benefit equally from this resurgence. Some metro areas are characterized by particularly strong pent-up demand, driven by a confluence of factors including robust job growth, rising wages, and a large cohort of renters who can now afford to purchase a home.
Here are the 10 hottest US real estate markets to watch in 2024, according to the National Association of Realtors, each with unique dynamics driving its anticipated sales surge.
Austin, Texas
2023 Home Price Growth: -7.7%
Share of Renters Who Can Afford a Median-Priced Home: 18.9%
Share of Returning Buyers if Rates Fall: 5.1%
Austin has long been a magnet for high-earning millennials relocating from expensive coastal markets, and that trend shows no signs of slowing. Despite a temporary dip in home prices in 2023, the city boasts one of the largest pools of “returning” buyers—households that were priced out when rates were higher but will re-enter the market if rates decline.
While Austin faces significant housing affordability challenges, the influx of tech talent and the city’s dynamic economy continue to fuel demand. According to the Austin Board of Realtors, home sales activity has already shown positive signs of a turnaround, with early 2024 data indicating a resurgence in buyer interest. The combination of returning buyers and ongoing migration is expected to drive a significant increase in transactions throughout the year.
Dallas, Texas
2023 Home Price Growth: 1.9%
Share of Renters Who Can Afford a Median-Priced Home: 21.5%
Share of Returning Buyers if Rates Fall: 4.9%
The Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex continues to cement its status as a powerhouse for job creation, boasting the second-fastest growing job market among the nation’s largest metros. With more than 4% annual job growth, the local economy is generating opportunities that are attracting talent from across the country.
This economic dynamism, coupled with favorable affordability metrics—more than 22% of renters can afford a median-priced home—positions Dallas for a robust housing market recovery. As mortgage rates ease, the pent-up demand from both returning buyers and new movers is expected to translate into a significant surge in sales volume. The Texas Triangle, encompassing Austin, Dallas, and Houston, appears set to dominate the 2024 real estate landscape.
Dayton, Ohio
2023 Home Price Growth: 9.1%
Share of Renters Who Can Afford a Median-Priced Home: 30.6%
Share of Returning Buyers if Rates Fall: 4.7%
Dayton stands out as a beacon of affordability in a market where high prices have sidelined many potential buyers. Not only is the city among the most affordable in the US, but it also offers a wealth of options for first-time buyers. More than half of the listings in Dayton are within reach for first-time homebuyers, providing a much-needed entry point into homeownership.
The area’s strong job market further bolsters its appeal, enabling more renters to make the transition to homeownership as rates decline. With a significant share of returning buyers and a healthy supply of affordable properties, Dayton is well-positioned for a substantial increase in sales activity in 2024.
Durham/Chapel Hill, North Carolina
2023 Home Price Growth: 2.6%
Share of Renters Who Can Afford a Median-Priced Home: 18.8%
Share of Returning Buyers if Rates Fall: 5.6%
The Research Triangle, home to world-class universities and a booming tech and life sciences sector, continues to attract high-earning talent. Durham and Chapel Hill boast the highest share of “returning” buyers among all 100 largest metro areas, with 6% of households gaining affordability as rates drop.
While the area faces a shortage of entry-level housing, the combination of strong wage growth—up 13% from the previous year—and a large pool of returning buyers is expected to drive significant market activity. As mortgage rates moderate, the pent-up demand from both existing residents and relocating professionals will likely lead to a surge in home sales.
Harrisburg, Pennsylvania
2023 Home Price Growth: 8.5%
Share of Renters Who Can Afford a Median-Priced Home: 32.1%
Share of Returning Buyers if Rates Fall: 5.3%
Harrisburg offers a compelling combination of affordability and economic opportunity, making it an attractive destination for both local and relocating buyers. More than 30% of renters in the market can already afford a median-priced home, and this figure is set to expand further as mortgage rates decline.
The area is also drawing high-earning renters from more expensive regions, drawn by the promise of lower living costs and a strong job market. With a significant portion of existing homeowners having exceeded the average tenure of 15 years, there is substantial potential for inventory to increase as these owners decide to sell. This combination of returning buyers, incoming talent, and potential inventory turnover positions Harrisburg for a robust sales surge in 2024.
Houston, Texas
2023 Home Price Growth: 3.7%
Share of Renters Who Can Afford a Median-Priced Home: 23.8%
Share of Returning Buyers if Rates Fall: 4.3%
Yet another Texas market making the cut, Houston’s appeal lies in its strong job market, rising wages, and relative affordability. While housing costs in Houston are lower than in many other major metros, the area has experienced a noteworthy fourfold increase in wages, significantly outpacing the national average.
This combination of economic dynamism and affordability is expected to boost market activity in 2024. As mortgage rates ease, the pent-up demand from both local renters and relocating professionals is poised to drive a significant increase in sales volume. Houston’s diverse economy and growing job base continue to make it a prime destination for homebuyers.
Nashville, Tennessee
2023 Home Price Growth: 0.7%
Share of Renters Who Can Afford a Median-Priced Home: 13.8%
Share of Returning Buyers if Rates Fall: 4.6%
Nashville’s vibrant culture and burgeoning job market have long attracted residents, and the anticipated resurgence of returning buyers is expected to further invigorate the market. The area’s strong economy continues to draw high-earning millennials, adding to the pool of potential homebuyers.
However, Nashville faces a significant challenge in the form of a housing shortage, particularly for properties at price points affordable to first-time buyers. Despite this inventory constraint, the combination of pent-up demand and ongoing migration is expected to drive a notable increase in sales activity as mortgage rates decline.
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
2023 Home Price Growth: 4.6%
Share of Renters Who Can Afford a Median-Priced Home: 21.5%
Share of Returning Buyers if Rates Fall: 4.7%
Philadelphia is on the verge of a significant boost, driven by pent-up demand from both buyers and sellers as the rate lock-in effect begins to ease. With 44% of homeowners having surpassed the average tenure of 17 years, there is substantial potential for inventory to increase as these owners decide to sell.
First-time buyers in Philadelphia also stand to benefit, with twice as many affordable purchase options compared to most other areas across the country. This combination of returning buyers, easing inventory constraints, and a healthy supply of entry-level homes positions Philadelphia for a strong sales surge in 2024.
Portland, Maine
2023 Home Price Growth: 12.3%
Share of Renters Who Can Afford a Median-Priced Home: 20.2%
Share of Returning Buyers if Rates Fall: 4.9%
Portland has emerged as a magnet for high-earning millennials relocating from more expensive coastal markets, second only to San Jose. The city’s low violent crime rate and desirable quality of life continue to attract talent, adding to the pool of potential homebuyers.
While fewer than 10% of listings in Portland are within reach for first-time buyers
