The 10 Hottest US Real Estate Markets Set to Surge in 2024
The American housing market is on the cusp of a dramatic turnaround. After two years of sluggish sales, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) predicts a significant rebound in 2024, driven by falling mortgage rates and pent-up buyer demand.
The NAR forecasts that US home sales will surge by approximately 18% in 2024, marking the most substantial increase in at least 15 years. This rebound is expected to bring the total number of transactions to nearly four million, the highest level since 2010.
“The decline in mortgage rates is expected to draw more buyers, including those returning to the market, consequently bolstering demand for housing,” the NAR reported. “These lower mortgage rates will also ease the rate lock-in effect by enticing more existing homeowners to re-enter the market and list their homes.”
This anticipated surge in activity is poised to create windfalls for realtors, with projections indicating a 13% rise in existing home sales and a 19% increase in new home sales. Sellers are also expected to benefit from rising home prices, as pent-up demand meets limited inventory.
To identify the markets most poised to capitalize on this shift, the NAR analyzed the 100 largest metropolitan areas, evaluating factors such as home price growth, renter affordability, job growth, and the potential for returning buyers as mortgage rates decline. The analysis revealed 10 cities where pent-up demand is particularly strong, suggesting significant market activity in the coming year.
Austin, Texas
2023 Home Price Growth: -7.7%
Share of Renters Who Can Afford to Buy: 18.9%
Share of Returning Buyers if Rates Fall: 5.1%
Austin, Texas, is emerging as a dynamic market poised for significant growth. Despite a recent dip in home prices, the city continues to attract high-earning Millennials from other states, with those earning over $100,000 relocating to the area in increasing numbers.
While housing affordability remains a challenge, the influx of these new residents, combined with the potential return of previous buyers, is expected to fuel a surge in market activity. The Austin Board of Realtors has already noted a positive turnaround in home sales, indicating that the market is beginning to heat up. The combination of returning buyers and newly arrived high-earners creates a potent mix of demand that could drive substantial price appreciation in 2024.
Dallas, Texas
2023 Home Price Growth: 1.9%
Share of Renters Who Can Afford to Buy: 21.5%
Share of Returning Buyers if Rates Fall: 4.9%
Dallas, Texas, stands out as one of the nation’s fastest-growing job markets, with the local economy expanding by over 4% year-over-year. This robust job growth has created a fertile environment for housing demand, with 22% of renters in the market able to afford a median-priced home.
As mortgage rates decline in 2024, this affordability will translate into increased purchasing power for a significant segment of the renter population. The combination of a booming job market and improving affordability positions Dallas as a prime candidate for a housing market resurgence, with expectations of heightened sales activity as buyers capitalize on favorable conditions.
Dayton, Ohio
2023 Home Price Growth: 9.1%
Share of Renters Who Can Afford to Buy: 30.6%
Share of Returning Buyers if Rates Fall: 4.7%
Dayton, Ohio, offers a compelling combination of affordability and opportunity, making it an attractive market for both first-time buyers and investors. The city boasts a strong job market that continues to draw new residents, while a significant portion of renters—over 30%—can already afford to purchase a median-priced home.
For first-time buyers, the prospects are even brighter, with more than half of the available listings within their purchasing power. As mortgage rates fall, this affordability will only improve, likely triggering a wave of homeownership transitions. The combination of a robust job market and accessible housing options positions Dayton for substantial growth in 2024.
Durham/Chapel Hill, North Carolina
2023 Home Price Growth: 2.6%
Share of Renters Who Can Afford to Buy: 18.8%
Share of Returning Buyers if Rates Fall: 5.6%
The Research Triangle region, including Durham and Chapel Hill, is experiencing a surge in pent-up demand. This area leads the nation with the highest share of “returning” buyers, with 6% of households regaining the ability to afford a median-priced home as mortgage rates decline.
While the availability of affordable listings for first-time buyers is limited, the region’s robust wage growth—with average earnings rising by 13 percentage points year-over-year—is helping to bridge the affordability gap. This combination of returning buyers and rising incomes positions the Durham/Chapel Hill market for a significant rebound in 2024.
Harrisburg, Pennsylvania
2023 Home Price Growth: 8.5%
Share of Renters Who Can Afford to Buy: 32.1%
Share of Returning Buyers if Rates Fall: 5.3%
Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, stands out as a highly affordable market with significant growth potential. More than 30% of renters in the area can already afford to purchase a median-priced home, and the market is attracting high-earning renters from other states.
As mortgage rates continue to fall, both inventory and buying activity are expected to increase. With 42% of homeowners having already surpassed the average tenure of 15 years, there is substantial potential for existing homeowners to list their properties, further boosting supply. This combination of affordability, inbound migration, and potential inventory growth positions Harrisburg for a strong 2024.
Houston, Texas
2023 Home Price Growth: 3.7%
Share of Renters Who Can Afford to Buy: 23.8%
Share of Returning Buyers if Rates Fall: 4.3%
Houston, Texas, the third market from the Texas Triangle to make the list, offers a compelling blend of affordability and strong economic fundamentals. With 23.8% of renters able to afford a median-priced home, the market is well-positioned for growth as mortgage rates decline.
What sets Houston apart is its remarkable wage growth, which has quadrupled over the past year, outpacing the national average. This rapid income appreciation, combined with existing affordability, creates a powerful catalyst for increased housing activity. As buyers take advantage of favorable conditions, Houston is poised for a significant rebound in 2024.
Nashville, Tennessee
2023 Home Price Growth: 0.7%
Share of Renters Who Can Afford to Buy: 13.8%
Share of Returning Buyers if Rates Fall: 4.6%
Nashville, Tennessee, is expected to see a resurgence in market activity driven by returning buyers. The city’s strong job market continues to attract Millennial renters earning over $100,000, adding to the pool of potential homebuyers.
However, Nashville faces a significant housing shortage, particularly in the price range that first-time buyers can afford. This supply constraint, combined with the anticipated return of previous buyers, creates a scenario where pent-up demand could lead to rapid price appreciation once inventory levels improve. The combination of high-earning inbound migration and returning buyers positions Nashville for a dynamic 2024.
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
2023 Home Price Growth: 4.6%
Share of Renters Who Can Afford to Buy: 21.5%
Share of Returning Buyers if Rates Fall: 4.7%
Philadelphia is poised for a significant boost driven by pent-up demand from both buyers and sellers. As the rate lock-in effect begins to ease, more existing homeowners are expected to list their properties, increasing market inventory.
With 44% of homeowners having surpassed the average tenure of 17 years, there is substantial potential for a wave of home sales. Additionally, first-time buyers in Philadelphia have more affordable purchase options compared to most markets across the country, further fueling demand. This combination of returning sellers and accessible options for first-time buyers positions Philadelphia for a strong 2024.
Portland, Maine
2023 Home Price Growth: 12.3%
Share of Renters Who Can Afford to Buy: 20.2%
Share of Returning Buyers if Rates Fall: 4.9%
Portland, Maine, has emerged as a desirable destination for high-earning Millennial renters, attracting the second-highest number of such residents after San Jose. The city also boasts the lowest violent crime rate among the 100 largest metropolitan areas, making it an attractive place to live.
While fewer than 10% of listings are currently within reach for first-time buyers, the market has significant potential for inventory growth. With approximately 42% of homeowners having exceeded the average tenure, there is substantial pent-up supply waiting to be released. As mortgage rates decline, these existing homeowners
